"The town's name is evocative of its history. Situated on a pine-forested ridge, it was first inhabited in the late 1700's as Charlestonians and other inhabitants of the SC Lowcountry sought respite from the summer heat, mosquitos and disease. From May to September plantation families along the nearby Ashley River and other coastal areas, headed for higher elevation to live temporarily or "maroon," in the tiny forest colony soon dubbed Summerville. Other pioneer residents descended from those 1696 puritans who settled the nearby former colonial settlement of Dorchester, endowing Summerville with a heritage spanning three centuries."
Figure 2: 5-Year Homes Sales Quarterly
Over the past five years the first quarter of each year had the lowest home sales followed by the second quarters highest units sold. The 2009 second quarter growth will be an indicator of weather the bottom is in sight.
Figure 3: Comparison 1St Qt Home Sales 2005-2009
Home sales fell from 3869 to 1376 (-64%) between 1st Qt 2005 to 1st Qt 2009.
Figure 4: 5-Year Volume Sales per Quarter
Volume sales dropped from $978,652,565 in first quarter 2005 to $354,941,995 first quarter of 2009.
Figure 5: Comparison 1St Qt Volume Sales 2005-2009
Volume sales dropped -47.6% between first quarter of 2008 and 2009.
Figure 6: 5-Year Average List, Average Sold and Median Price
List price, average sold price and median sold price all declined in the first quarters of 2008 and 2009.
Figure 7: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Average List, Sold and Median Prices
From the first quarter 2008 to 2009 the list price dropped -12.7%, average sale price dropped -14.4% and the median price declined -11.5%.
Figure 8: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 average sales price as a percent of list price
The percent sold to list price declined in the first quarters of 2008 and 2009 by 0.7% and -2% respectively. The decrease between 2005 and 2009 was -4.3% from .982 to .939.
Figure 9:1QT Days on Market Comparision 2005-2009
First Quarter days on market reached 118 in 2009.
Figure 10: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Current Inventory
For the last 8 quarters there has been an inventory of between 11,000-12,000 homes.
Figure 11: Comparison 1St Qt 2005-2009 Months Inventory
In the first quarter 2009 there was a 24 month home inventory.
In summary the first quarter of 2009 reported the worst start in 10 years, the volume was $354,941,995 down -47%, averages sold price dropped -14.7% to $257,531, the sold to listing ratio dropped -2%to 93.9%, days on the market reached 118 up from 104 in 2008, the current inventory is around 11,000 units and there is a 24 month supply of homes at the current demand.
Overall it is the best buyers market in the last decade offering interest rates below 5% for 30 year fixed mortgages, tax incentives for first time buyers, low average sale and median sold prices, high inventory of new construction, an abundance of foreclosures in all price ranges, and 11,000 sellers motivated to sell their homes.
There have been some positive signs in the housing market recently but I think the housing market will not bottom out until the first quarter of 2010.
Welcome to the Century 21 Blog. Our goal is to present a monthly analysis of the greater Charleston area real estate market. We will look at the past 10-year, past 5-years, and 2008 -2009 monthly statistics. The analysis will review important market measurements including: unit sales, sales volume, days on market, list price, average sales price, median sold price, unit inventory level and months inventory. We will also study the MLS as a whole, by county and by individual areas including the major subdivisions and some subsections.
Regards,
Carl Caldeira & Dave Creaturo
Charleston Area 10-Year Review
During the past 10 years we’ve seen a tremendous development of our Charleston area real estate market. In 1998 there were 7,623 units sold, a sales volume of $1.2 billion, an average sales price of $158,462, with 2941 units in inventory and an average month’s inventory of 4.63 months. In 2008 the market had 8,893 units sold, $2.6 billion in sales volume, and an average selling price of $292,247 with 11,382 units in the inventory and 15.36 months inventory. In 2005 the market reached its highest unit sales and volume sales levels.
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| From Carl |
In the 5-year unit sales / month (Fig.2), we see the trend line and sales cycles. The slope of the trend line demonstrates the rapid unit sales decline from 2005 to 2008.
Also in this chart we can see the seasonality of the units sold during the year. The second and third quarters usually produce more sales than the first and fourth quarters. In 2008 the unit sales started well below the previous three years and after a 6 month decline ended back at the 2002 monthly unit sales level.
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| From Carl |
In slide Fig. 3 I’ve stacked the years one on top of the other to demonstrate the monthly unit variance from 2005-2008. Here we can see that June 2005 had 1852 units compared to a high of only 913 units in 2008. It is also interesting to note that the second quarter of 2008 was much flatter than 2005-2006.
It is troublesome to see 2009 start out with only 400 units which is well below the 650 units in 2008.
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| From Carl |
The greater Charleston market area reached an all time high dollar sales volume of $5,022,485,847 in 2005 up from $1,207,959,788 in 1998 for a 415% increase over the 6 year period (avg. 69% / year). From 2006 to the end of 2008 the total volume declined to $2,599,251,589 or 193% (avg. 97% / year).
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| From Carl |
In 2005 and 2006 the monthly dollar volume reached a high point over $550,000,000 while 2008 peaked around $275,000,000 and had a low of $125,000,000.
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| From Carl |
The second half of 2008 saw a sharp decline in volume. January 2009 started out at only $100,000,000 which was far below previous years 2005-2007.
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| From Carl |
The average sales price increased from $158,462 in 1998 to $298,604 2006 or 188% (avg. 20.9% over 9 years). The average sales price declined to $292,247 in 2008 by 2.2%. The median sales price for the area was $122,550 in 1998 and by 2007 it rose to $207,500 or 169% (avg. 18.8% / year). The median price fell to $200,000 in 2008 or 3.75%. The Charleston area as a whole has been able to maintain its home value compared to other areas in the country. We should also note that some price ranges have had more discounting and some CTAR areas have lost more value.
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| From Carl |
The average sales price increased from $158,462 in 1998 to $298,604 2006 or 188% (avg. 20.9% over 9 years). The average sales price declined to $292,247 in 2008 by 2.2%. The median sales price for the area was $122,550 in 1998 and by 2007 it rose to $207,500 or 169% (avg. 18.8% / year). The median price fell to $200,000 in 2008 or 3.75%. The Charleston area as a whole has been able to maintain its home value compared to other areas in the country. We should also note that some price ranges have had more discounting and some CTAR areas have lost more value.
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| From Carl |
In Fig. 9A we can see that the average list price is higher than the average sold price. The sellers are still reluctant to list their homes closer to the market price. This often results in properties taking longer to sell. Also note that 2009 started out with a median sales price below $180,000 which was down from January 2008.
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| From Carl |
To further emphasize the point of percent of sold price verses list price, we see in Fig 10 that the actual sales price declined from a monthly high in 2005 of 98% of list to 95.5% in 2008.
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| From Carl |
2009 started out below 94% of the list to sold price.
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| From Carl |
The unit inventory grew from 4,382 units in 2004 to 11,382 units at the end of 2008 or 260% (65%/year for 4 years).
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| From Carl |
The huge build up in inventory started in January 2006 at 5,000 units and reached a monthly high of 11,700 units in April of 2008.
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| From Carl |
The unit inventory started out at 11,000 in 2008 and dropped to a low of 10,600 in December. January 2009 was slightly lower than January 2008.
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| From Carl |
By 2008 the average month’s inventory rose to 15.36 months. Month’s inventory is the expected average time to sell a new listing. It is calculated by the amount of homes sold per month divided by the total unit inventory.
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| From Carl |
During the 2005 market boom sales month’s inventory was below 4 months. As sales slowed and unit inventory grew the inventory months reached to 22 months by November 2008.
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| From Carl |
January 2008 started out at 17 months and in January 2009 reached a 5-year high of 28 months.
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| From Carl |
